WHILE a new report predicts Warrington’s economy to be flatlining whilst the UK recovers in the second half of 2023 from the current recession, business leaders remain confident the town’s strong resilient growth will continue as normal.
According to a new study by law firm Irwin Mitchell predicts there will be no growth in Warrington in the final quarter of 2023, although this isn’t being reflected locally With the council-owned Birchwood Park reporting one of its most successful years to date along with some new key tenants, while export licences are up by 10 per cent!
The Irwin Mitchell City Tracker has been produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and examines 50 locations across the UK, forecasting future growth in terms of GVA* and employment.
The report, which estimates that the UK entered into a recession in the second half of 2022, expects economic growth to resume in the second half of 2023.
According to the research, Warrington’s economy is estimated to have been one of the most resilient to the cost-of-living crisis with the size of its economy growing by 1% in Q4 2022 compared to 12 months before.
Although this performance placed Warrington in the top five fast-growing economies in the UK, looking ahead to 2023, the report estimates Warrington’s economy will not grow at all in the final quarter of 2023. This compares to annual growth of 0.6% in Liverpool and 0.5% in Manchester.
There’s slightly better news on the jobs front with employment levels increasing 0.8% year-on-year, taking total headcount to 127,100 in Q4 2023.
Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr, said: “2023 will be a difficult year for consumers and businesses across Warrington, with the cost-of-living crisis expected to lead to falling economic activity. However, Cebr forecasts that economic growth will resume in the second half of 2023, with most cities expected to see an annual expansion in GVA by Q4 2023.”
Charlotte Rees-John, partner and Head of Irwin Mitchell’s Consumer sector, said: “Last year presented numerous challenges and the downward pressure on spending activity, which continues to be concentrated in the consumer sector, looks set to continue throughout the first half of 2023.
“The consumer sector has however been one of the most resilient, agile and innovative sectors in recent times and those businesses that succeed during 2023 will be in a very strong position to take advantage of a more stable economic environment in 2024.”
Charlotte added: “Considering longer-term aspirations, such as the transition to carbon net zero, is something all businesses, irrespective of the sector they are in and the pressures that they are facing, need to do. ESG is fast becoming a priority for the majority, particularly at a time when there is huge pressure and scrutiny from consumers and investors who are increasingly making their decisions based on ethical as well as financial factors.”
Commenting on the report Steve Park, Director of Growth, Warrington Borough Council, said: “Whilst the City Tracker is an important indicator of Warrington’s economic performance, it’s not reflected in our interactions with domestic and international investors.
“Council-owned Birchwood Park reported one of its most successful years to date, including pre-Christmas announcements for Werfen, Atos, FX Cartel and Wain Homes. Elsewhere, the town centre continued its recovery from the pandemic with Warrington market adding another two national awards in 2022 and recording its highest-ever daily footfall of 10,000 visitors before Christmas.
Stephen Fitzsimons, Chief Executive, Warrington Chamber of Commerce added: “Challenges remain for UK exporters in 2023, not least from additional trade barriers and a shortage of skilled staff post-Brexit. However, despite UK trade being down 20% into the EU, Warrington Chamber of Commerce members are actually selling more overseas, with export licences up by over 10%. We are pleased to hear that our larger neighbours in Liverpool and Manchester will experience growth of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, however they are starting from a lower base, having been especially affected by Covid-19. By contrast, our economy is anchored by the UK’s nuclear sector, speciality chemicals and the ever growing logistics industry. We are confident that our strong and sustainable growth will continue as normal.”
