VOTERS living in Warrington South will wield an average of seven times more power in the General Election on December 12 than the rest of the country, according to a new analysis.
The Voter Power Index (VPI) was put together by “Vote for a Final Say – a new campaign, including ex-advisers to the People’s Vote group, working with young activists from For our Future’s Sake to increase turnout and tactical voting in 25 marginal constituencies, and stop Boris Johnson winning a landslide victory for Brexit.
Based on crunching figures from vast nationwide polling exercises, the VPI shows that people in knife-edge constituencies like Warrington South – where analysis suggests the margin of victory is around 1500 votes – have more influence than the rest of the country.
This means that a vote for Labour candidate could have huge influence on the final election outcome.
The analysis combines data from three MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) models, including those published this week by YouGov and Best for Britain, as well as work done by strategists preparing for a new referendum campaign.
Faisal Rashid, the Labour candidate for Warrington South, said:“The people of Warrington South have a huge amount of influence over the outcome of this General Election. Some seven times the power of the average voter. This means 7 times the power to protect jobs. 7 times the power to prevent Boris Johnson making the poorest poorer and instead invest in our crumbling public services. 7 times the power to back nurses and doctors and save our NHS from the hands of Donald Trump.”
“Which is why it is critical that firstly, the people of Warrington South vote, and that secondly, they vote tactically for Labour. A vote for me is the only vote that can stop the nightmare of Boris Johnson, his Conservative government, and four more years of continued cuts and neglect.”
But Conservative Candidate Andy Carter said Labour’s position was confused and failed to recognise a democratic decision had already been taken.
He said: “We’ve all been trapped in a Brexit vortex, going round in circles, debating the same issue over and over again. We held a referendum in 2016 and we asked everyone to vote. The decision was clear, in excess of a million more people voted to leave than remain and here in Warrington the majority voted to leave. Parliament couldn’t agree on a way forward so we are having an election to try and break the deadlock”.
“Every single Conservative candidate, me included, has signed up to Boris’s deal which will allow us to leave the EU on 31st January, so with a Conservative majority government we can approve the withdrawal agreement and get on with taking the country forward by investing in our public services and maintaining a strong economy”.
“Labour’s candidate here wants to negotiate a new deal, hold a 2nd referendum and then campaign against the deal his party has negotiated. That’ll lead to another 12 months of division and debate instead of restoring confidence and certainty to business and families”.
Lib Dem candidate Ryan Bate added: “I have spoken to many voters on the doorstep who are considering tactical voting. I share their concerns about a hardline Tory government getting a majority. I also share the concerns of many people about the direction of the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn. I’m in this election to provide people the choice of a Liberal Democrat plan for a brighter future. Sadly, we have a woefully outdated and unfair voting system which robs people of being able to exercise their vote freely. It is far better when people can vote with conviction, based on their values, rather than having to weigh up tactical options.
“Ultimately the voters of Warrington South can choose how they cast their ballot and if they feel it necessary to vote tactically this time, then that is their choice.”
Meanwhile four of the five candidates contesting the Warrington South seat took part in a hustings event organised by BBC Radio 4, who see the constituency as a “key marginal,” at Bold Street Methodist Church on Wednesday evening.
Warrington-Worldwide broadcast the opening of the event where all candidates were given 60 seconds to say why the people of Warrington South should vote for them.
Brexit candidate Clare Aspinall accepted an invitation to attend the event, but did not appear.
To hear their responses check out the video above.
The five candidates for Warrington South are:
Aspinall, Clare (Brexit Party)
Bate, Ryan (Liberal Democrats)
Carter, Andy (Conservative)
Hickson, Kevin (Social Democratic Party)
Rashid, Faisal (Labour)
VOTER POWER INDEX – Warrington South
| Seat | Winner | 2nd | Margin (Votes) | Voter Power Index |
| Warrington South | CON | LAB | 1,510 | 7.4 |
3 Comments
“This means that a vote for Labour candidate could have huge influence on the final election outcome.”
True to a point, Labour is singled out at the start in the story but the bookies only rate Labour as having a 4% chance of winning outright. So the huge influence is much more likely to be gaining power with the SNP and breaking up the union and scrapping the nuclear deterrent, the SNP’s red lines. That is not to mention the Leninist policies favoured by John McDonnell.
Labour got my vote take a walk round Manchester at 4.30 in the morning . families with kids living on the street s .all labour bis doing is giving the people back what’s been taken away over the last 40 years . Germany and France will still be spending more then UK under labour . Capitalism is corruption socialism is the future
Steven, Socialism is defined as a temporary state on the route to Communism, it has never been a viable future.